jueves, 24 de septiembre de 2015

Activity 7.2



     Develop a simulati 
        Develop a simulation predicts demand for the product or service by formation project.
    Consider the following:

       company name:
a   Primary areas of business
on predicts demand for the product or service by formation project. Consider the following:

       company name:
a) Primary areas of business

 


The main product lines are the drinks, snacks, groceries, cigarettes, cleaning products and some medications that are sold without prescription.

The main feature is that the customer enters a self service business. Our shop is usually excellent and very profitable business if it is planned, managed and strategically located.

a)    Seven Steps to a pension system :

1.    Applications to be considered in the minimarket

• Maintain always clean room
• Speed ​​and excellence in customer service
• Product clean, neat and labeled on your shelves
• A good inventory system to keep the assortment
• Respecting health and hygiene rules
• extended hours and weekend care

2.    The items to be sold in the minimarket

1. Refreshments
2. Snacks
3. Cigars
4. Basic Groceries
5. Bakery
6. Dairy
7. Delicatessen
8. Hygiene and Personal Care
9. Cleaning products
10. Wines
11. Pharmacy
12. Confectionery
13. Butchery and poultry
14. Greengrocery and greengrocers




1.    Data Collection

It should be a detailed assessment of the offer, thereby obtaining the information related to: 
how many similar businesses exist around the area, which are offering prices, schedules, 
quality of customer service and product range that handle.
 
4. Making forecast To make the forecast minimarket we must consider the following:  
Market factor. It is measured quantitatively; and it relates to the claim or good service 
to be procured. Market Index. It is simply a market factor expressed in percentage or 
quantitatively related to a base figure. Potential Sale. Will be the potential of our market 
reach the minimarket think under ideal conditions. This would apply to every product brand.  
 
Market share. We observe the proportion of total sales of a product for a certain period in a 
specific market captured by our minimarket. Sales Forecast. We will estimate the likely 
sales of a brand of product for a certain period in a specific market. 
 
Apply where a marketing plan established, this type of forecast can be expressed in 
amounts or units; it will be based on a specific marketing plan for the product in question.  
 
 
                                         5. Validation and Implementation  
 
Since then, the investment budget should be prepared considering the furniture according 
to the size of business you want to mount. Some suppliers of coffee and sodas contemplated
within its distribution mechanisms, granting coolers and cappuccino machines at no cost 
and can be excellent alternatives with the only requirement to fulfill a certain minimum sales.


Graph forecasting trends and enter your product or service will have short, 
medium and long term.  
 
Formula: 
Monthly periods: Months of the Year 
demand 
forecast
 


D-P= (D-P)2
 
 




MINIMARKET SERVICE FORECAST 2015 BY PRODUCT
GRUPO
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
G 1
101
135
101
115
94
81
141
149
149
129
166
450
G 2
87
86
100
147
116
100
99
128
155
160
211
450
G 3
98
106
76
106
106
74
106
85
106
104
112
250
G 4
115
103
108
98
103
107
103
112
103
117
100
200
G 5
75
99
75
121
99
75
99
75
99
75
121
250
G 6
98
95
97
119
108
96
103
109
119
122
135
450
G1: basic groceries
G2: Hygiene and personal care
G3: Cleaning products
G4: Wines and spirits
G5: Pharmacy
G6: confectionery
 
 
 


As evident in the graph forecasting service to lend the mini 2015 ; is expected for the month 
of December we have a service with minimal errors 25 % 100 % quality of service, this added
to the implementation of the minimarket , it begins with employees that contribute to the 
growth thereof; as for the products , they must be of customer satisfaction . 
 
For the medium term (3 years ) we hope to have reduced the error rate by 17 % as well 
as reflect on the graph, because as you grow the minimarket must implement measures 
and processes that help to minimize the margin of error in the quality of service.
 


SERVICE FORECAST MEDIUM TERM
GRUPO
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
G 1
100
150
100
120
80
55
160
180
175
150
200
300
G 2
80
50
100
150
120
100
95
150
180
200
250
350
G 3
120
100
80
90
100
75
100
100
100
130
100
200
G 4
100
90
100
90
90
100
90
100
90
100
90
150
G 5
80
80
80
100
80
80
80
80
80
80
100
250
G 6
95
75
95
100
75
95
75
95
75
95
100
300
 
 
 
And for the long term it is expected to tell the minimarket with zero errors in customer care 
and quality service delivery.
 


FORECAST OF SERVICE TERM
GRUPO
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
G 1
90
125
90
150
125
90
125
90
125
90
150
250
G 2
80
135
80
150
135
80
135
80
135
80
150
300
G 3
75
140
75
135
140
75
140
75
140
75
135
350
G 4
95
140
95
148
140
95
140
95
140
95
148
200
G 5
74
150
74
160
150
74
150
74
150
74
160
180
G 6
68
150
68
150
150
68
150
68
150
68
150
130
 
 
Model or inventory system used. Price, packing unit, quantity: For our inventory system 
software where you can have control and detailed inventory records, because all items sold 
will be registered in the program with their respective information, such as implemented 
Sales minimum reference or barcode, discounts, VAT, and others. ABC was implemented, 
this system will analyze and divide the items of inventories minimarket, based on the cost 
of three groups that call group A, group B and group C. 
 
Articles in Group A are those that pose the greatest investment in the minimarket, these 
represent about 20% of inventory items that absorb 90% of the investment. 
 
They will be the most expensive or rotating more slowly in inventory, which in this case 
would come to be: 
 
1. Basic Groceries 
2. Products for personal care 
3. Cleaning 
4. Wines

Items in group B will be those corresponding them this investment in terms of costs, 30% 
of bone items requiring 8% of the investment.
 
1. Pharmacy 
2. Confectionery 
3. Butchery and poultry 
4. Greengrocery and greengrocers  
 
Items of Group C are those normally associated with the lowest, bone 50 % of all inventory 
items investment, but only 2% of investment minimarket is in inventory.  
 
1. Refreshments 
2. Cigars 
3. Bakery 
4. Dairy 
5. Delicatessen  
 
So with this system ABC classification of inventory items from each according to his cost 
would be realized and thus more attention to items that are more expensive to lend the 
production process.



Simulation predicts the demand for the services to run through inventories.     
 
 
 


CONSOLIDATED
MES
AÑO
2015
2014
2013
2012
ENE
6%
7%
6%
6%
FEB
7%
5%
6%
5%
MAR
6%
6%
5%
4%
ABR
6%
6%
5%
4%
MAY
5%
5%
8%
8%
JUN
5%
5%
8%
8%
JUL
4%
0%
8%
8%
AGO
8%
0%
8%
7%
SEP
8%
0%
7%
9%
OCT
8%
0%
9%
25%
NOV
7%
0%
25%
0%
DIC
9%
0%
0%
0%
 
To simulate we forecast that in the last four years, demand for the service of our products 
will be increased month on quality and good service delivery, here are the months per year 
as demand would increase:
 
 
 
                                                        Inventory policies  
 
The importance of inventory policies lies in the primordial objective of any minimarket, 
which is profit. It should aim to maximize the return on investment, satisfying market needs. 
 
As major policies would:  
 
1. Minimize investment in day’s inventory investment, without affecting the sales and 
production. 
 
2. Get the maximum financing through suppliers. 
 
3. Maintain stocks through efficient administration. 
 
4. Monitor inventory exposure to inflation and devaluation. 
 
5. Maximize coverage requests.
 
6. Minimize unit costs of raw materials; identify reliable suppliers. 
 
7. Minimize inventory investment: reducing the financial risk; maximize cash flow.











 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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