Develop a
simulati
Develop a
simulation predicts demand for the product or service by formation project.
Consider
the following:
company name:
a Primary areas
of business
on predicts demand for the product or service by formation project. Consider
the following:
company name:
a) Primary areas
of business
The main product lines
are the drinks, snacks, groceries, cigarettes, cleaning products and some
medications that are sold without prescription.
The main feature is
that the customer enters a self service business. Our shop is usually excellent
and very profitable business if it is planned, managed and strategically
located.
a) Seven Steps to a pension system :
1. Applications
to be considered in the minimarket
• Maintain always clean room
• Speed and excellence in customer service
• Product clean, neat and labeled on your shelves
• A good inventory system to keep the assortment
• Respecting health and hygiene rules
• extended hours and weekend care
2. The
items to be sold in the minimarket
1. Refreshments
2. Snacks
3. Cigars
4. Basic Groceries
5. Bakery
6. Dairy
7. Delicatessen
8. Hygiene and Personal Care
9. Cleaning products
10. Wines
11. Pharmacy
12. Confectionery
13. Butchery and poultry
14. Greengrocery and greengrocers
1. Data Collection
It should be a detailed assessment of the offer, thereby obtaining the information related to:
how many similar businesses exist around the area, which are offering prices, schedules,
quality of customer service and product range that handle.
4. Making forecast To make the forecast minimarket we must consider the following:
Market factor. It is measured quantitatively; and it relates to the claim or good service
to be procured. Market Index. It is simply a market factor expressed in percentage or
quantitatively related to a base figure. Potential Sale. Will be the potential of our market
reach the minimarket think under ideal conditions. This would apply to every product brand.
Market share. We observe the proportion of total sales of a product for a certain period in a
specific market captured by our minimarket. Sales Forecast. We will estimate the likely
sales of a brand of product for a certain period in a specific market.
Apply where a marketing plan established, this type of forecast can be expressed in
amounts or units; it will be based on a specific marketing plan for the product in question.
5. Validation and Implementation
Since then, the investment budget should be prepared considering the furniture according
to the size of business you want to mount. Some suppliers of coffee and sodas contemplated
within its distribution mechanisms, granting coolers and cappuccino machines at no cost
and can be excellent alternatives with the only requirement to fulfill a certain minimum sales.Graph forecasting trends and enter your product or service will have short,
medium and long term.
Formula:
Monthly periods: Months of the Year
demand
forecast
D-P= (D-P)2
MINIMARKET SERVICE FORECAST 2015 BY PRODUCT GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC G 1 101 135 101 115 94 81 141 149 149 129 166 450 G 2 87 86 100 147 116 100 99 128 155 160 211 450 G 3 98 106 76 106 106 74 106 85 106 104 112 250 G 4 115 103 108 98 103 107 103 112 103 117 100 200 G 5 75 99 75 121 99 75 99 75 99 75 121 250 G 6 98 95 97 119 108 96 103 109 119 122 135 450G1: basic groceriesG2: Hygiene and personal careG3: Cleaning productsG4: Wines and spiritsG5: PharmacyG6: confectionery
As evident in the graph forecasting service to lend the mini 2015 ; is expected for the monthof December we have a service with minimal errors 25 % 100 % quality of service, this addedto the implementation of the minimarket , it begins with employees that contribute to thegrowth thereof; as for the products , they must be of customer satisfaction .For the medium term (3 years ) we hope to have reduced the error rate by 17 % as wellas reflect on the graph, because as you grow the minimarket must implement measuresand processes that help to minimize the margin of error in the quality of service.
SERVICE FORECAST MEDIUM TERM GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC G 1 100 150 100 120 80 55 160 180 175 150 200 300 G 2 80 50 100 150 120 100 95 150 180 200 250 350 G 3 120 100 80 90 100 75 100 100 100 130 100 200 G 4 100 90 100 90 90 100 90 100 90 100 90 150 G 5 80 80 80 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 100 250 G 6 95 75 95 100 75 95 75 95 75 95 100 300![]()
And for the long term it is expected to tell the minimarket with zero errors in customer careand quality service delivery.
FORECAST OF SERVICE TERM GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC G 1 90 125 90 150 125 90 125 90 125 90 150 250 G 2 80 135 80 150 135 80 135 80 135 80 150 300 G 3 75 140 75 135 140 75 140 75 140 75 135 350 G 4 95 140 95 148 140 95 140 95 140 95 148 200 G 5 74 150 74 160 150 74 150 74 150 74 160 180 G 6 68 150 68 150 150 68 150 68 150 68 150 130![]()
Model or inventory system used. Price, packing unit, quantity: For our inventory systemsoftware where you can have control and detailed inventory records, because all items soldwill be registered in the program with their respective information, such as implementedSales minimum reference or barcode, discounts, VAT, and others. ABC was implemented,this system will analyze and divide the items of inventories minimarket, based on the costof three groups that call group A, group B and group C.Articles in Group A are those that pose the greatest investment in the minimarket, theserepresent about 20% of inventory items that absorb 90% of the investment.They will be the most expensive or rotating more slowly in inventory, which in this casewould come to be:1. Basic Groceries2. Products for personal care3. Cleaning4. WinesItems in group B will be those corresponding them this investment in terms of costs, 30%of bone items requiring 8% of the investment.1. Pharmacy2. Confectionery3. Butchery and poultry4. Greengrocery and greengrocersItems of Group C are those normally associated with the lowest, bone 50 % of all inventoryitems investment, but only 2% of investment minimarket is in inventory.1. Refreshments2. Cigars3. Bakery4. Dairy5. DelicatessenSo with this system ABC classification of inventory items from each according to his costwould be realized and thus more attention to items that are more expensive to lend theproduction process. Simulation predicts the demand for the services to run through inventories.
CONSOLIDATED MES AÑO 2015 2014 2013 2012 ENE 6% 7% 6% 6% FEB 7% 5% 6% 5% MAR 6% 6% 5% 4% ABR 6% 6% 5% 4% MAY 5% 5% 8% 8% JUN 5% 5% 8% 8% JUL 4% 0% 8% 8% AGO 8% 0% 8% 7% SEP 8% 0% 7% 9% OCT 8% 0% 9% 25% NOV 7% 0% 25% 0% DIC 9% 0% 0% 0%To simulate we forecast that in the last four years, demand for the service of our productswill be increased month on quality and good service delivery, here are the months per yearas demand would increase:![]()
Inventory policiesThe importance of inventory policies lies in the primordial objective of any minimarket,which is profit. It should aim to maximize the return on investment, satisfying market needs.As major policies would:1. Minimize investment in day’s inventory investment, without affecting the sales andproduction.2. Get the maximum financing through suppliers.3. Maintain stocks through efficient administration.4. Monitor inventory exposure to inflation and devaluation.5. Maximize coverage requests.6. Minimize unit costs of raw materials; identify reliable suppliers.7. Minimize inventory investment: reducing the financial risk; maximize cash flow.
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