7.2

FORECASTING

COMPANY NAME

TRANSPORT SA CARVAJAL

AREA HOME BUSINESS

Transport Carvajal SA It is a company dedicated to the provision of special transport and tourism.

SEVEN STEPS TO A SYSTEM OF FORECASTING

DETERMINING THE USE OF THE FORECAST

The forecast is done in order to expand the coverage of the transport service company Carvajal SA nationally, ie throughout the Colombian territory. Improving service by upgrading our equipment and applying new technologies, of our contemporary environment, to improve the quality of our services.

SELECT ITEMS FOR WHICH WILL MAKE THE FORECAST

It will forecast the number of customers and the necessary frequency in the daily use of special services and tourist transport. Therefore, you must determine the origin, routes and destinations with greater order and intensity and office use. Verifying times and routes connecting units. Even with these mechanisms, we could determine disruptions or failures of the service, because we would have the right tools.

DEFINE horizon FORECAST

The prognosis is to be made in the medium term (3 years), Planning tasks aimed at improving the quality of service offered by transport and tourism company Carvajal SA Transport hence, it will not only be an increase in equipment, vehicles, but also in quality and greater coverage that will allow us to meet the needs of our customers and potential through modern installation of new technology.

Select the model or forecast models

Considering that in determining prognosis, we can rely on two models, We will focus on the quantitative model, for it, is going to use a pattern of simple linear regression based on historical data of the last 3 years, which will to facilitate the calculations and analysis yields the following results.

Collecting the necessary data for FORESIGHT

In this section, the average sales are taken into account in the last two years and the figures reported by the Ministry of Transport of Colombia on accidents, compliance and penetration rate of the country in these services and subscriptions that have arisen In colombia.

REALIZATION OF FORECAST

To carry out the thread of our forecast, not only to take literally the steps above, but also will consider a very rigorous selection of articles, as a basis, a foundation to carry out our forecast, for in them, we must have the key information, the choice of historical data and the processing of data by the method of quantitative analysis linear regression. To reach successful.

VALIDATE AND IMPLEMENT THE RESULTS

Once this step , we are close to completing the journey that began last 6 Step back on track in this final point, we design and implement our forecast , which must be reviewed and approved by management, the sales department and the Department design and development , to ensure the validity of the model applied and the forecast results .

FORECAST AND DEMAND TRENDS
 
The two types of services offered by the company are of special tourist and transportation, so to condense the above information is necessary to refer to historical data of the demand for services in both categories to present the company in the last three years (2012 , 2013 and 2014), the figures grouped into quarters for easy reading can obtain the forecast demand in the short (2015), medium (2015 to 2017) and long term (2015 to 2019), using the following formula:
 
(TR1 + TR2) / 2: TRP, where TR1 means more up year quarter, TR2 the year-ago quarter and TRP average quarter demand forecast.
 
Example:
 
(1st quarter 1st quarter 2013 + 2014) / 2: the average forecast of commands the 1st quarter of 2015 Obtaining the following information about the demand forecast of tourist services











 


  

  

Trimestre 

  

  

Año 

  

  

Demanda 

  

  




  

  

 

  

  

1

  

  

2012

  

  

313

  

  

Datos Históricos 

  

  

 

  

  

2

  

  

430

  

  

 

  

  

3

  

  

387

  

  

 

  

  

4

  

  

550

  

  

 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

1680

  

  

 

  

  

1

  

  

2013

  

  

466

  

  

 

  

  

2

  

  

622

  

  

 

  

  

3

  

  

571

  

  

 

  

  

4

  

  

741

  

  

 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

2400

  

  

 

  

  

1

  

  

2014

  

  

703

  

  

 

  

  

2

  

  

953

  

  

 

  

  

3

  

  

831

  

  

 

  

  

4

  

  

1113

  

  

 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

3600

  

  

 

  

  

1

  

  

2015

  

  

584,5

  

  

Pronostico a corto plazo / 1 Año

  

  

Pronostico a mediano plazo / 3 Años 

  

  

Pronostico a largo plazo / 5 Años 

 

  

  

2

  

  

787,5

 

  

  

3

  

  

701

 

  

  

4

  

  

927

 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

3000

 

  

  

1

  

  

2016

  

  

643,75

  

  




 

  

  

2

  

  

870,25

  

  




 

  

  

3

  

  

766

  

  




 

  

  

4

  

  

1020

  

  




 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

3300

  

  




 

  

  

1

  

  

2017 

  

  

614,125

  

  




 

  

  

2

  

  

828,875

  

  




 

  

  

3

  

  

733,5

  

  




 

  

  

4

  

  

973,5

  

  




 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

3150

  

  




 

  

  

1

  

  

2018 

  

  

628,9375

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

2

  

  

849,5625

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

3

  

  

749,75

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

4

  

  

996,75

  

  




  

  




 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

3225

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

1

  

  

2019 

  

  

621,53125

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

2

  

  

839,21875

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

3

  

  

741,625

  

  




  

  




 

  

  

4

  

  

985,125

  

  




  

  




 

  

  




  

  

Total 

  

  

3187,5

  

  




  

  




 


GRAPHICS
 
GRAPHIC DEMAND FORECAST FOR TOURIST TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
 
Graph historical data :





Trend: As shown in the above graph where the lawsuit filed in service units for the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 is clearly shown the same increase over three years, but each year presents same characteristic, then the second and fourth quarter of each year (April to June and October to December, respectively) have more than the other two periods demand.
 
This can be justified on the holiday and peak times occurring in these quarters, related to Easter, mid-year school break and of course New Year's Eve.
 
These periods show a rise of users, which translates into a greater number of services demanded and finally a significant forecasting tool that the company should be used for their preparation, in terms of extra staff contract, a fleet of railcars and willing in perfect condition or stock inventory reserves, more continuity and shorter operation and other actions deemed necessary to respond with an adequate supply and quality of service to the increased demand.


INVENTORY SYSTEM
 
In order to make a proper categorization and inventory system of the company, you should initially recognize the main services that are included , classified as follows :

It should be noted that the inventory of related services above corresponds to one of the types of service offered by the company, the tour, as the special shuttle does not have these ranges so specifically, its value varies according to time requested service the amount and distance of journeys you make, capacity and model of the car is hired and other specifications or preferences required by users.
 
Inventory model
 
ABC
 
This inventory system allows us to prioritize the items that require the most investment in inventory and so knowing if warranted continue to invest these resources in line with turnover and profits from their sale thereof for the company, is That is why it is important to know your lot, medium or low importance in this aspect (a, b, and c respectively).


This inventory system allows make informed decisions about control, rotation and logistics category of inventory held by the company products and optimize the management of their resources.


In the case of an outsourced and non-industrial company must inventory the services offered by the company, in the present case have been assigned the following values:

 Inventory policy
 
The efficiency and quality of service offered by Carvajal SA depends on a large proportion of its logistics operation, which is why the completion and timely control of our inventories play a key role in the success of the process.
This is not only to bring our services at the time and place required by users, but to strike a balance between costs and demand.
Carvajal SA seeks to manage its inventory of how easy it is to identify, timely and accurately and supplies the needs of the fleet, so that the synergy between the different areas of the company is essential.
 
PERSONAL AREA
 
The personnel working within the department and inventory purchases must have full knowledge of its function, the inventory system to use and principles of general mechanics
 
Due process for applying for acquisition, repair and purchases are established, authorized only by the head of inventories
Those responsible for inventories should detail specifically in a format control, observations, counts and other relevant information
 
According to the regular updates that are made on the platform and inventory system, responsible for the area in question must attend a mandatory basis
 
Area personnel must be able to design and assume a policy of contingencies, related to depletion of inputs and outputs, for

 AREA OF INFRASTRUCTURE
 
Transportes Carvajal SA has an ideal infrastructure for storing the various elements and accessories required by the Van, minibuses, vans and fleets
 
Have at their disposal a parking and / or warehouse large enough and equipped to maintain the fleet that is not in operation or continuously acquire
 
SHOPPING AREA
 
The shopping area should work together with the area of ​​inventory and budget, hold fortnightly meetings and receiving daily and weekly reports, by the responsible staff
 
The department allocated 40% of profits to improve and purchase of equipment, supplies and vehicle fleet
 
The shopping area conduct quarterly meetings to check and approve acquisitions concerning vans, minibuses and buses for accessories and other inputs will be made monthly, however, in case of missing urgently take the process as soon as possible
 
The members of the department ensure seek to maintain the lowest possible cost supplies, having a direct and reliable relationship with our main suppliers: Chevrolet Aveo Sedan, Coomotor, Ford Motor, Nippon pieces services, Otis tarda, petrol pumps Royal, Terpel MoveL, Texaco and finally Youtong as the main supplier of the vehicles.